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I guess

I suppose; sure. Often used as an affirmative answer when one is not completely certain or does not want to fully commit. Bob: "You look a little down today. Everything alright?" Mary: "I guess. I've just been feeling vaguely melancholy lately." A: "It's supposed to be sunny today, right?" B: "I guess. I haven't checked the weather."
See also: guess

I guess not

An expression of vague denial or negation. A: "Is Tom coming?" B: "I guess not—it's getting pretty late."
See also: guess, not
Farlex Dictionary of Idioms. © 2015 Farlex, Inc, all rights reserved.

I guess

 and I expect; I suppose; I suspect 
1. a phrase that introduces a supposition. (Frequently, in speech, suppose is reduced to 'spose, and expect and suspect are reduced to 'spect. The apostrophe is not always shown.) Bob: I guess it's going to rain. Bill: Oh, I don't know. Maybe so, maybe not. Alice: I expect you'll be wanting to leave pretty soon. John: Why? It's early yet.
2. a vague way of answering 'yes'. John: You want some more coffee? Jane: I 'spose. Alice: Ready to go? John: I spect.
See also: guess

I guess not.

 and (I) don't think so.; I expect not.; I suppose not.; I suspect not.; I think not.
a vague statement of negation. (More polite or gentle than simply saying no. Frequently, in speech, suppose is reduced to 'spose, and expect and suspect are reduced to 'spect. The apostrophe is not always shown.) Bill: It's almost too late to go to the movie. Shall we try anyway? Mary: I guess not. Tom: Will it rain? Mary: I 'spect not.
See also: guess, not

I guess (so).

 and I believe so.; I expect (so).; I suppose (so).; I suspect (so).; I think so.
a vague expression of assent. (Frequently, in speech, suppose is reduced to 'spose, and expect and suspect are reduced to 'spect. The apostrophe is not always shown.) Tom: Will it rain today? Bob: I suppose so. Sue: Happy? Bill: I 'spect. Sue: You don't sound happy. Bill: I guess not.
See also: guess
McGraw-Hill Dictionary of American Idioms and Phrasal Verbs. © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
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References in classic literature ?
Indeed, except in respect of staring about him (a branch of the public service to which the pictorial cherub is much addicted), this domestic cherub discharged as many odd functions as his prototype; with the difference, say, that he performed with a blacking-brush on the family's boots, instead of performing on enormous wind instruments and double-basses, and that he conducted himself with cheerful alacrity to much useful purpose, instead of foreshortening himself in the air with the vaguest intentions.
I had only heard of him in the vaguest way, as living concealed in the thick of two hundred thousand natives, and only emerging into the light of day for the purpose of hunting up some brandy.
To Bessie Carvil he would state more explicitly: "Not till our Harry comes home to-morrow." And she had heard this formula of hope so often that it only awakened the vaguest pity in her heart for that hopeful old man.
He said the information was so sensitive he would not provide even the vaguest idea of where they or the telecom were located.
Throwing around the term "racist" is now an all too common accusation, and at the same time is among the vaguest of terms.
For a bloke who is now well above 25 years, I find it quite out of the line that he has never asked, even in the vaguest terms, about my romantic life.
You do not have the vaguest idea how rich tobacco companies are.
Timing is everything, people blithely say, when what they really mean is "luck is everything." Most of us have only the vaguest grasp of time, and as Daniel Pink shows in his fascinating new book, you have to understand time if you want to learn good timing.
The fear of communism was so pronounced, Senator Joe McCarthy was permitted to trample countless Americans suspected of harbouring even the vaguest sympathies for Russia.
In the vaguest terms, "woke" refers to an intangible level of awareness about community issues and social justice, but the specific meaning changes depending on the speaker.
Fine Sir, but David Cameron recently tried that and got nowhere, and do you have even the vaguest idea of how unlikely significant change is?
Opposition parties can go on about a "new strategy", which they have never defined even in the vaguest terms, or a "plan B", which is nothing more than an empty slogan, for as long as they like, but the truth is that there is no other way, method or option.
It seems to me that none of the Republicans running for president had even the vaguest understanding of what's happening in Syria.
Some say it's odd - but I don't think it's the vaguest bit odd.