Taking a different approach, Keren and Roelofsma (1995; Experiment 1) found that participants' preference for the larger, later outcome increased as the probability for obtaining either outcome decreased when the delays to receiving the outcomes were 0 versus 4 weeks.
Determining the interaction between delay and probability discounting is not only theoretically interesting, it also has practical value.
the chance of a random DNA match and does not equal the probability
Variation and probability
pertain to the outcomes of future experiments and observations, not to the properties of an existing state of the world.
These scientists reach a conclusion only when the estimated probability
of one scenario becomes sufficiently high.
During 2013 Probability
will upgrade its most popular games across its catalogue to the new format.
QP-PQ: quantum probability
and white noise analysis; v.
Charles Cohen, Chief Executive Officer of Probability
Mulligan and Hunter (2003) use such a model for estimating the average probability
of a decisive vote in legislative elections, and Gelman, Katz, and Bafumi (2004) use the distribution of aggregate vote margins to study the dependence of the probability
of a tie on the number of voters.
While we might expect that mathematicians and scientists since De Morgan's time would be content to define probability
subjectively or ignore the matter altogether, the actual history of probability
since De Morgan's day is replete with mathematicians and scientists who sought to establish that probability
is more than simply a measure of subjective belief.
This meant the chances of hitting a rectangle increased with its size-it was simply easier to strike a bigger target, and participants gradually learned the link between rectangle size and probability
of a positive test when disease is present.
In this section, we prepare ourselves by calculating the probability
that at least two persons from 40 randomly chosen persons have the same birthday.
Another interesting observation was related Machina's utility function as expected: according to his studies, the utility function is concave in x for any probability
The conditional probability
that the process will be in state [s.