It is difficult to predict what will happen to long-run averages of real interest rates in the United States and abroad.
Understanding the fundamentals driving long-run real interest rates matters for the household, business, and government sectors of an economy and especially for monetary and fiscal policymakers.
If all price series are stationary, prices are in long-run equilibrium and simple linear regression can be used to analyze the short-run dynamics.
Cointegration is a time-series analysis, used to model the long-run relationship between variables when these variables are non-stationary (Engle and Granger 1987; Johansen and Juselius 1990).
Similarly, for LRR, our results include ex-post characterizations of movements in the long-run
growth rate and volatility.
which has the property that the representative consumer just doesn't care enough about those long-run
risks to pump up the returns on those high book-to-market portfolios.
More specifically, we propose and define four distinct time periods for macroeconomics: The extreme short-run, the short-run, the long-run
, and the extreme long-run
Lousy economic performance currently has depressed stocks, but the market has some optimism about the long-run
outlook and hasn't given up on the idea that growth in productivity will return in the years ahead.
Because the purchase of a home is a long-term investment, we find that the impact on home prices is negligible, similar to the long-run
impact on rents.
12) Consequently, there exists a stationary long-run
relationship in Turkey between government spending, taxes, real GNP, and interest rates.
In models in which nominal variables follow integrated variables processes, long-run
neutrality can be defined and tested without complete knowledge of the behavioral model.
Point estimates of long-run
effects can be easily extracted from equation A.
If you are going to encourage a long-run
growth, for example, debtfinancing has a great advantage, since as long as a corporation meets its interest payments, it is free to sacrifice short-term profits for long-term productivity.
January Commentary: an extensive review of the long-run
capital markets covering the past 80 years as well as the recent past.
Since economic decision making is based on real factors, the long-run
effect of injecting money into the macroeconomy is often described as neutral--in the end, real variables do not change and so economic decision making is also unchanged.