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Equal odds or likelihood of some outcome or event happening or not. Taken from a gambling wager of 1:1, in which the bettor stands to win or lose equal amounts of money on the outcome. I've been training all year, but my opponent is exceptionally tough, so I'd say it's even money as to who will win. The rail system is so poor here that it's usually even money whether the train will arrive or not.
Farlex Dictionary of Idioms. © 2015 Farlex, Inc, all rights reserved.
Equal odds that something will occur, as in It's even money that he'll get the contract. The term comes from gambling, where it signifies equal odds in a bet. [Late 1800s]
The American Heritage® Dictionary of Idioms by Christine Ammer. Copyright © 2003, 1997 by The Christine Ammer 1992 Trust. Published by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company. All rights reserved.
If something is even money, it is equally likely that either of two possible things will happen. The album is even money to get to number one. Note: This expression comes from the situation in betting when you have an equal chance of winning or losing your money.
Collins COBUILD Idioms Dictionary, 3rd ed. © HarperCollins Publishers 2012