likely

A likely story.

something that you say when you do not believe that an explanation is true. He claims he thought he was drinking low alcohol lager. A likely story. So he was just giving her a friendly hug because she was upset, was he? That's a likely story if ever I heard one.

See also: story

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as likely as not

probably. She didn't usually work all night, but she was as likely as not to be at the lab at any given time.