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be a sure thing

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be a sure thing (American & Australian, informal)
to be certain to happen or to succeed. It's a sure thing she'll buy the most expensive jacket in the store. His re-election is hardly a sure thing.
See also: sure, thing

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I can tell you right now it looks like a possibility, but in 2006 it could be a sure thing, a sure-not thing, or somewhere in between," Frank said.
 
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