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an educated guess

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an educated guess
a guess that is likely to be correct because you have enough knowledge about a particular subject. Scientists can do no more than make educated guesses about future climate changes.
See also: guess

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Take this description by Mark Steyn: "There are many trouble spots around the world, but as a general rule, it's easy to make an educated guess at one of the participants: Muslims vs.
For added insurance, the ASP works with ocean experts to make an educated guess as to when a specific location will have prime surfing waves.
Like many test-takers, Kennan's students sometimes leave answers blank, even though they have enough information to attempt an educated guess.
 
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